When Chance Meets Change: Imagining the NBA Draft Lottery of Tomorrow
July 16th, 2025
By Brandon Harrington @MKTG
The 2025 NBA Draft is now in the books, and fans are still processing the stunning outcome: Cooper Flagg, donning a Dallas Mavericks hat, confidently crossing the Barclays Center stage. Just months ago, this seemed unimaginable. Yet, this improbable moment has flipped the league on its head.
So, how did the Mavericks, just one season removed from the NBA Finals, land the No. 1 overall pick as only the fourth team in history to do so? The short answer: pure luck.
On May 12th, 2025, 1.88 million NBA fans witnessed the unthinkable during the Draft Lottery. Here’s a quick refresher on how that process works:
The NBA Draft Lottery
Four ping pong balls are drawn from a set of 14, each ball numbered 1 through 14. These four-ball combinations correspond to teams, weighted by their regular-season records—the three worst teams each have a 14.0% chance at the top pick, with odds decreasing incrementally for better teams. The results are revealed live on national television by NBA Deputy Commissioner Mark Tatum, with representatives from each lottery team eagerly awaiting their fate.
Despite having only a 1.8% chance, the Mavericks pulled off one of the most unlikely lottery wins since the system’s inception in 1985, ranking as the fourth biggest long shot to snag the No. 1 pick. For Dallas fans, it’s a feel-good story. For the other thirteen participating teams, it’s a reminder of the lottery’s brutal unpredictability. As expected, frustrated fans voiced their disappointment—ranging from conspiracy theories linking the outcome to the Mavericks’ Luka Doncic trade to calls for a revamped draft system.
Fan frustration is louder than usual this season, likely driven by the rare talent of Cooper Flagg and the Mavericks’ controversial front office moves. But those fans must remember that they’re not alone: the NBA team with the worst record hasn’t won the lottery since 2018. Moreover, weighted draft lotteries aren’t unique to the NBA; both the MLB and the NHL use similar systems to balance fairness and competition.
Still, the uproar has sparked a fascinating idea: what if the lottery system was reimagined? A successful model must captivate fans, offer fair and proportional odds, and discourage tanking. With these principles—and the league’s appetite for innovation and new revenue streams—here’s a fresh take: a nationally televised, 1-on-1 tournament featuring rostered players as team representatives, competing to determine draft order and, ultimately, their franchise’s future.
The Reimagined NBA Lottery: A 1-on-1 Tournament
This single-elimination event pairs one player from each of the 14 lottery teams in head-to-head matchups, played to 21 points. Matchups follow traditional seeding: 1 vs. 14, 2 vs. 13, and so forth. To reward higher seeds, each game begins with the top-seeded player awarded free throws equal to the difference in seed (e.g., the No. 1 seed starts with 13 free throws against No. 14). This advantage carries through each round, preserving the possibility of upsets while making Cinderella runs more challenging. The stakes are high: a $1 million prize will be donated to the winning player's charity of choice, adding both incentive and a meaningful cause to the competition.
Why This Works
For the league, this format transforms the lottery from a behind-the-scenes draw into must-watch television, boosting viewership. It taps into a fan-favorite but rarely showcased style of basketball—the 1-on-1 game—while generating additional revenue as hosting rights go to the No. 1 seed’s city, giving that struggling franchise a financial boost. This approach also provides a blueprint for adding 1-on-1 matchups to NBA All-Star Weekend—injecting new competitiveness and boosting fan engagement.
Fans, teams, and players also benefit. The tournament adds transparency and legitimacy to the draft process, silencing conspiracy theorists. Teams can strategize roster construction around players’ 1-on-1 skills. And players get a unique platform to become heroes and make a tangible impact outside of the playoffs.
Given the NBA’s forward-thinking approach, it’s exciting to imagine what comes next. Commissioner Adam Silver has long championed innovation—from the In-Season Tournament to global expansion. As Silver puts it, “It’s critically important that we continue to innovate… you can never stop innovating.” Perhaps this 1-on-1 tournament is the league’s next big leap.
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